deep water — for readers who want the method, not the metaphor · −1 000 m → −4 000 m

Layer 4 · the discipline

How models get sabotaged — and how we keep score in public.

This layer drops the analogies. The four known ways a secret rule gets into a model, the numbers on why testing can't find it, the public tests we grade ourselves on, and how we watch the whole open-model world.

In one breathHow sabotage gets in, the numbers on why testing can't catch it, the paper trail regulators ask for, and the public tests we grade ourselves on.

Deep, nearly lightless water with slow marine snow drifting.
fig. 04 deep water — method, not metaphor
The four ways in

How a backdoor gets into a model.

A backdoor is any secret rule someone builds into a model so that one special input makes it misbehave, while every ordinary input looks completely normal. There are four known ways to plant one, and each leaves a different kind of trace:

How it's done
What happens
Poisoned lessonsduring training
The attacker slips trap examples into the material the model learns from, so it picks up the secret rule alongside everything else. It can be set to react to one exact phrase and nothing close to it.
Direct editno training at all
The attacker changes the model's inner numbers by hand and wires the trigger straight in — no training data involved. Cheap, fast, and invisible if you only inspect the training material, because there wasn't any.
Poisoned add-onthe common case
The trigger hides in a small extra file (an "adapter") that snaps onto a clean model. The base is fine and the add-on is tiny — and most shared models are exactly this, which is why we read the add-on too.
Tampering with its thinkingthe frontier
The trigger corrupts how the model reasons, not just what it says — meddling with its private, step-by-step thinking. The newest and hardest-to-spot kind; we say plainly where our sight ends.

They all share one property: a well-made trigger is a needle in a haystack the size of the universe. A model carrying one looks identical to a clean one under any ordinary test — the formal version of "it passes every check, then turns on the one input you never tried."

The needle, quantified

Why testing can't get there, in numbers.

Made-up numbers, real conclusion. Say the secret phrase is five little chunks long, drawn from the ~50 000 word-chunks a model knows:

≈ 3 × 10²³possible five-chunk phrases (50 000⁵) — the haystack the needle hides in
≈ 10⁹questions you could throw at it in a year of nonstop testing, ~30 every second
~ 1 in 3 × 10¹⁴the chance that year of testing ever hits the trigger — about one in three hundred trillion
0changes inside the model while you test — the hidden rule sits in the file the whole time, there to be read

Change any of these numbers — a longer phrase, faster test machines, smarter guessing at likely phrases — and the odds barely budge. The haystack always wins. The one place the trigger is guaranteed to be is the file itself — so that's where we look.

Calibration

The public benchmarks we grade ourselves on.

A detector graded only on its maker's homework proves nothing. We run the reader against the public suites the research community uses, and the scores land on the surface page's ledger with witnesses attached — including what we miss. The current program:

Test 1

PADBench

The public test built from the small add-on files people actually download and share — the closest match to real-world risk, graded across five model families and posted on the surface-page ledger.

shipped · AUC 0.848
Test 2

NIST TrojAI

The long-running, U.S.-government-graded series for finding hidden traps in AI. The best public scores are already known, so clearing the bar actually means something.

shipped · AUC 0.878
Test 3

BAIT-ModelZoo

A public zoo of adapter backdoors scored by target inversion. We separate one family cleanly — but that standalone result is confounded by training length, so we concede it standalone and keep it partial.

partial · conceded standalone
Test 4

BackdoorLLM

The big public suite for hidden backdoors across many model types. It ships poison-only adapters with no clean same-recipe controls, so our matched-reference read has no baseline offline — deferred to GPU work.

deferred → GPU
Test 5

ELBA-Bench

A public test focused on how well-hidden a backdoor in a shared adapter is. Not yet on the ledger — queued.

in progress
Test 6

TDC2023

A well-known research set — but it ships one poisoned model per architecture with no benign-finetuned siblings, so there is no matched reference to read against. An honest structural no-go, posted as one.

no-go (structural)

Beyond these, we keep our own private test set built from the latest attacks in the research, and we publish — with every release — exactly where our detection stops. Where we're blind, we say so.

The field read

One reader, the whole field.

We read the open-model world continuously — the models people actually download and run — instead of waiting for someone to hand us a file. The method is our secret. The results are not.

We say exactly what we can read. The common model file types (with names like safetensors and GGUF), and the model families we've mapped — published with every release, gaps included.

Same file in, same verdict out. Anywhere, every time — because a result we can't reproduce is a result we won't defend. And a file is identified by its fingerprint, never its name: the name can lie; the fingerprint can't.

The owner hears it first. When we find something real, we tell the model's owner privately before anyone else. The public record carries resolved cases — and our misses.

The paper trail

A paper trail, updates, and the regulator.

Every other supply chain checks the thing itself, not the label — steel is traced, medicine is batched, food is tracked back to the farm. Models enter production on a paragraph nobody was asked to prove. The fix is boring and well known: check the file before you trust it, and keep the evidence that you did.

A check is only true about one model at one moment — so the discipline is a fresh check on every release: each new version, compared against the last one we signed off, either confirms nothing worrying moved or flags exactly what did. And the alarm belongs during training, not after: the training charts can look perfect while the model quietly picks up a behaviour nobody intended. Caught partway through training, it's a quick course-correction; caught after launch, it's an incident. Same finding, wildly different cost — decided by when you get it.

Regulators now ask for exactly this kind of evidence: check the model, document what it is, track what changed, keep the record — the EU AI Act's obligations have been phasing in since 2025, with enforcement arriving through 2026 and beyond. Whether that lands as a cost or as routine isn't set by the law; it's set by how you produce the evidence. Produced automatically, as a by-product of reading every model anyway, compliance stops being a project and becomes a leftover.

Descend

Layer 5: the protocols — how we lock an answer, prove a file is real, and package proof.

The deepest layer: the exact machinery behind "the answer was locked before anyone looked," how anyone can check a downloaded file is the real one, and what a piece of proof actually contains.

Descend to Layer 5↓ −10 911 mUp to Layer 3↑ −1 000 m